Title: Advancing Integrated Modeling, Prediction, and Warning of Extreme Weather and Climate in a Rapidly Urbanizing World
Lecturer: Prof. Fei Chen（Hong Kong University of Science and Technology）
Inviter: Prof. Zhe-Min Tan
Time: Sunday March 22, 2026 at 9:30 AM
Venue: Lecture Hall D103, School of Atmospheric Sciences
Abstract: Rapid urbanization is transforming land–atmosphere interactions and intensifying the impacts of extreme weather and climate hazards, including heat waves, heavy rainfall, flooding, and air-quality extremes. Improving prediction and warning of these high-impact events requires integrated modeling systems that link physical process understanding, high-resolution numerical prediction, and actionable information for society.
This seminar presents recent advances in integrated urban weather and climate modeling, with a focus on two research initiatives at HKUST: SEA4C (Southeast Asia 4-km Climate data) and MPAS-Urban, a next-generation global urban prediction framework. SEA4C addresses a critical climate information gap in Southeast Asia by developing the first kilometer-scale long-term regional climate datasets that capture extreme events and tropical weather systems more realistically than conventional global datasets. These high-resolution datasets with enhanced urban process representation provide essential climate infrastructure for understanding regional climate risks and supporting urban resilience planning for SEA megacities.
The seminar will summarize the development effort introduces MPAS-Urban, a new modeling framework that integrates detailed urban representations into variable-resolution global prediction systems. By explicitly representing urban morphology, surface energetics, and anthropogenic emissions, MPAS-Urban aims to improve prediction of boundary-layer processes, urban heat stress, and extreme precipitation in dense coastal megacities. The lecture also highlights the broader vision of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme Urban-PREDICT initiative, which seeks to advance urban-scale prediction and early warning through coordinated modeling, observations, artificial intelligence, and international collaboration. We will focus on challenges in predicting extreme weather in complex urbanizing tropical regions, especially across Hong Kong, the Greater Bay Area, and Southeast Asia. Together, these efforts illustrate how advances in urban weather and climate science can support more accurate forecasts, more effective early warnings, and ultimately more resilient and climate-ready cities.